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Portfolio Risk Assessment Calculator
Use this to check the risk and possible loss of your investment portfolio based on the asset allocation.
Portfolio Risk Assessment
Asset Class Weight & Volatility
Stable
Weight
Type \
Duration
Short: duration ≤3 years
Medium: duration ≤9 years
Long: duration >9 years
*Floating-rate deposits are considered "Short"
Short
Medium
Long
Time deposit
Stable fund
Stable value fund or money market fund with minimal interest rate risk and credit risk.
Sub-total
Bond
Weight
Type \
Duration
Short: duration ≤3 years
Medium: duration ≤9 years
Long: duration >9 years
*Floating-rate bonds are considered "Short"
Short
Medium
Long
Treasury
including government-sponsored agency's mortgage-backed securities (MBS)
Municipal
Corporate
High yield
a.k.a. non-investment-grade bond, or junk bond
Sub-total
Equity
Weight
Volatility
default
Preferred stock
Value stock
Growth stock
Real estate & REIT
Sub-total
Riskiest asset
Weight
Volatility
default
Cryptocurrency
Commodity
Derivatives
Others
such as hedge fund, private equity, leveraged ETFs, and other alternative investments
Sub-total
Total portfolio
Volatility
This tool helps answer :
How should I
allocate investment, diversify risks
, to fit my
risk appetite
the level of risk you're prepared to accept in pursuit of the target investment yield
, so I can live comfortably with unrealized loss due to market volatility?
Are long-duration bonds safer than stocks? check the interest rate and credit risk.
How the risk can be mitigated with the increased number of holdings? click
Risk Assessment
Total assets balance
1-year volatility
1-day volatility
Set confidence level
50%
80%
90%
95%
98%
99%
1-day % gain / loss can be
within
±
1-day $ gain / loss can be
within
±
1-year Value at Risk (VaR)
Value at risk is a professional measurement of the risk of portfolio. It estimates how much a set of investments might lose (in 1-year period prescribed here, and with a given probability you set below), under normal market conditions.
25%
10%
5%
1%
probability
$ loss can be (worse than)
% loss can be (worse than)
% breakdown
Interest rate loss
Bond credit loss
Equity & riskiest assets loss
Diversification benefit
Because interest rate, bond credit, and equity market are not perfectly correlated, your overall risk (probable loss) can be reduced if your portfolio is diversified in several less-correlated asset classes.
1-year Sensitivity in Down Market
Interest rate
+0.25%
+0.5%
+1%
+2%
+3%
Portfolio may lose
Bond credit spread
+0.25%
+0.5%
+1%
+2%
+3%
Portfolio may lose
S&P 500 index
-5%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-50%
Portfolio may lose
The volatility (risk) of an asset class
Number of holdings within an asset class
The asset class refers to one of the 8 classes we categorize. (Preferred stock, Value stock, Growth stock, Real estate, Cryptocurrency, Commodity, Derivatives, Others.)
Volatility of a single holding (in average)
Typical volatility range:
Preferred stock
10% ~ 30%
Value stock
20% ~ 50%
Growth stock
50% ~ 100%
Real estate & REIT
20% ~ 50%
Cryptocurrency
50% ~ 100%
Commodity
10% ~ 60%
Derivatives
80% ~ 300%
Others
10% ~ 200%
Correlation between holdings (in average)
Typical correlation coefficient:
Concentrated in one industry
0.7 ~ 1.0
Diversified in several industries
0.5 ~ 0.7
Diversified in many industries
0.4 ~ 0.5
Volatility of this asset class
calculated by assuming equal weight of each holding.
Benefit of risk diversification
Number of Holdings and Risk
25%
10%
5%
1%
probability
in 1 day
in 1 month
in 1 year
% loss can be (worse than)
By using this, you can also determine how to reduce the risk within the asset class by increasing the number of holdings that are less correlated.
How Risk is Reduced in Longer Period
This tool helps answer :
Why investing for longer period
, likewise investing as early as possible, can reduce the overal risk and achieve higher compound return?
What is the
distribution of returns
in short term, compared to long term?
How long should I invest so the risk, probability of low or negative return, can be mitigated, to a level I can accept?
Portfolio Risk and Return
1-year volatility
Typical volatility range:
Multi-asset portfolio
use "import"
Investment-grade bond fund
3% ~ 7%
High yield bond fund
7% ~ 15%
S&P 500 ETF
16% ~ 24%
NASDAQ index ETF
20% ~ 28%
Value-stock fund
15% ~ 25%
Growth-stock fund
25% ~ 35%
Riskiest-asset fund
30% ~ 100%
Note: this is recommended for evaluating a portfolio, not for a single stock (like betting on one stock!), which may have more unknown idiosyncratic or delisting risk
You can import the "1-year volatility" calcuated from " Risk Assessment" table above, or manually fill the number.
Annual yield
We recommend to fill an long-term, objective expectation based on the assets in the portfolio. For example, 5% for corporate bond fund, 8% for S&P 500 ETF, and 9% for NASDAQ-100 ETF. The higher the yield, the higher the volatility should be considered.
Set confidence level
The more conservative you are as an investor, the higher the confidence level to consider.
50%
80%
90%
98%
Lower-than-range probability
equal to (1-confidence level) / 2.
This is the probability that the outcome (return) will be worse than the lower bound of the range showed below.
Holding Period and Annualized Return
Max tick to show:
max
1000%
500%
200%
100%
Holding Period and Total Return
Probability of total return below
300%
200%
100%
50%
0%
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